Welcome to AMMA-2050

AMMA-2050 News
Agridape Special Edition for AMMA2050 - February 2019
AMMA2050 article in UK Press - Mega-storms the size of England on the rise in North Africa; Telegraph; Sarah Newey
AMMA2050 Annual General Meeting 10th - 14th June 2019 - Somone, Senegal 
May 2018: Decision maker engagement workshops organised in Senegal and Burikina Faso to demonstrate AMMA-2050 outputs and gauge relevance to various users
5-9 Feb. 2018: Third Annual Project Meeting, Montpellier France
09 Oct 2017 : Joint BRACED / AMMA-2050 stakeholder workshop policy brief and website publication
22-23 Feb 2018, Paris: Symposium on risk management in agriculture, with the feedback and experience of agricultural professionals
7 June 2017: New paper in PNAS involving 3 AMMA-2050 researchers, and associated article in Washington Post
27 April 2017: AMMA-2050 paper in Nature, see alert plus News&Views

6 - 10 Feb 2017: AMMA-2050 annual meeting, Senegal

31 Jan - 2 Feb 2017: Joint BRACED / AMMA-2050 stakeholder workshop, Burkina Faso
12-16 December 2016: Metrics workshop in Leeds, UK
10 November 2016: AMMA2050 at COP22

15 October 2016: PostDoc vacancy at CNRM, France, Details.pdf

7-8 July 2016: Stakeholder meeting Burkina Faso

7-8 April 2016: Stakeholder meeting Senegal

11 December 2015: Side event presentation at COP21
1-5 October 2015: Project Kick-off meeting, Wallingford, UK 


In recent decades, West Africa has experienced some of the most extreme rainfall variability anywhere in the world. This climatic variability is directly affecting the livelihoods of its growing population. In this region rainfall is notoriously variable and contributed to an extensive and long-lived drought triggering regional scale famine in the 1970s and 1980s. In more recent years, a partial recovery of seasonal rainfall totals in the Sahel has been accompanied by devastating flooding events.  Despite a good understanding of the physical causes of historical climate variability, there is no clear agreement on how changes in greenhouse gases, land cover and aerosols will impact future rainfall. When looking at the impact on societies, there is little information on how high impact weather events may change in the future. This uncertainty, coupled with weak capability to plan investments on timescales of decades, results in the limited climate change knowledge being used as a guide to development decision-making.
This project will build on the largest multidisciplinary research effort ever undertaken in the area of African climate and environment, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA), to address the challenges of understanding how the monsoon will change in future decades, and how this information can be most effectively used to support climate-compatible development in the region.

Richard Lalou, Benjamin Sultan, Bertrand Muller & Alphousseyni Ndonky (2019) Does climate opportunity facilitate smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity in the Sahel? Nature. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0288-8

In Africa, adaptation will be crucial to offset expected negative climate change impacts on food security and agriculture development. In this study, we combine meteorological data from 18 local stations, field surveys on agricultural practices and agronomic information on the growth of millet to demonstrate the crop suitability to the present climate and the ability of Senegalese farmers to adapt their practices to climate variability, and to disseminate them. 

Ségolène Berthou, David P. Rowell Elizabeth J. Kendon, 
Malcolm J. Roberts Rachel A. Stratton, Julia A. Crook, 
Catherine Wilcox (2019)  Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4

The West African climate is unique and challenging to reproduce using standard resolution climate models as a large proportion of precipitation comes from organised deep convection. For the first time, a regional 4.5 km convection permitting simulation was performed on a pan-African domain for a period of 10 years (1997–2006). The 4.5 km simulation (CP4A) is compared with a 25 × 40 km convection-parameterised model (R25) over West Africa. CP4A shows increased mean precipitation, which results in improvements in the mature phase of the West African monsoon but deterioration in the early and late phases. 

Elizabeth.J.Kendon, Rachel A. Stratton, Simon Tucker, John H. Marsham, Ségolène Berthou, David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior (2019)

Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection permitting scale

Zhang W, Brandt M, Penuelas J, Guichard F, Tong X, Tian F, Fensholt R, (2019). Ecosystem structural changes controlled by altered rainfall climatology in tropical savannas.. Nature communications, 10 (1), pp. 671

Tropical savannas comprise mixed woodland grassland ecosystems in which trees and grasses compete for water resources thereby maintaining the spatial structuring of this ecosystem. 
Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christoper M.Taylor, Douglas J.Parker, Rachel Stratton, Thorwald Stein (2019) Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection-Permitting Simulations AGU100 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000491 Convection‐permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized‐convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the rainfall depend on a storm‐relative perspective of the system lifecycle.




Region of work


Expected Impact