Focussed on West Africa, with particular emphasis on the Sahel, the project is built around the 3 FCFA Pillars, with 2 Work Packages (WP) per pillar, and a 7th coordination WP (see figure).
Pillar 1: Scientific excellence in climate and HIW
Pillar 2: Use of climate information in decision making processes
Pillar 3: Demonstration 2 pilot studies to illustration the usefulness of climate information in decision making context
Workpackage 1: Drivers of hydrometeorological extremes, and their representation in regional and global climate models
By combining state-of-the-art Convection Permitting (CP) models with new observational analysis of multi-decadal climate data, this WP will deliver a quantitative assessment of the balance between remote drivers and internal feedbacks which control High Impact Weather in West Africa, and will use this to deliver metrics for the assessment of model performance in capturing these relationships.
Sub-WP1.1 Statistical analysis of observed HIW characteristics: will report on the relationships between observed HIW characteristics and key local and remote drivers
Sub-WP1.2 Observational and model analysis of a HIW case-study: will analyse one case study in detail to support a numerical model study to benchmark for CP runs, hydrological and socio-economical work in other WPs
Sub-WP1.3 Analysis of models resolving HIW physics: will assess statistics of HIW in the CP simulations, and analysing key physical processes controlling the HIW events.
Sub-WP1.4 Integrated analysis of HIW in climate models: will evaluate HIW events within both Regional and Global climate models and will contribute to the work of WP 2.2
Workpackage 2: Trustworthiness of Water Cycle Projections 5-40 Years Ahead
Projections of climate change over West Africa have traditionally focussed on simple metrics such as seasonal mean rainfall. However, to influence decisions that will affect livelihoods over the next 5-40 years, information on specific user-relevant metrics is required, such as intense rainfall events, dry spells, heatwaves, and damaging wind gusts. Innovative and world-leading scientific research will provide an understanding of the processes driving modelled change and uncertainty, leading to well-founded expert judgements of the trustworthiness of climate model projections.
Sub-WP2.1 Characterising Projected Changes in HIW: will characterise projected changes and uncertainties in HIW and climate 5-40 years ahead, using metrics defined in WP1 and Pillars 2&3.
Sub-WP2.2 Mechanisms and Trustworthiness of Large-Scale Projected Changes: will analyse the large-scale changes in West African weather and climate in a suite of models to understand the underlying physical processes controlling their uncertainty. T
Sub-WP2.3 Mechanisms and Trustworthiness of Convective-Scale Projected Changes: we will analyse the relationships between convective rainfall and changes in its controlling factors: land surface conditions and energy balance; atmospheric profiles; and large-scale dynamical forcing.
Workpackage 3: Identification of robust climate change impacts and adaptation options
There is a need to perform more consistent assessments of climate change impacts and potential for adaptation at the regional scale in West Africa. WP3 will conduct impact research including the design of a novel modelling framework that combines new CP simulations under climate change, physically-based impact models in the water management and agriculture sectors, and analysis of the timing of key impacts
Sub-WP3.1 Climate change impacts assessment: new simulations of water resources, flood risk and food production will be carried out under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios.
Sub-WP3.2 Adaptation options for the future: will evaluate the benefits of various pro-active adaptation options in the agriculture and water sectors.
Workpackage 4: Climate information into decision-making:
Overall WP4 will produce a detailed framework for incorporating information on future changes to HIW, climate and their impacts (from WPs 1, 2 & 3), in decision-making, to produce adaptive policies and practices that are progressive, flexible and entail low-regrets
Sub-WP 4.1: Scenario Building: information on future changes in HIW and their impacts , from WP2, will be input into scenario development approaches in the region in order to inform strategic planning at the sub-continental level
Sub-WP 4.2: Decision Making Contexts: will explore the decision-making contexts and climate information entry points related to building resilient agriculture (WP5) and urban flooding (WP6) in West Africa
Sub-WP 4.3 Pathways Approach: will follow an adaptive pathways approach working with groups of stakeholders to trial and co-develop tools to support the incorporation of climate information, into decision making processes.
Sub-WP 4.4 Boundary organisations: will develop and roll out training packages for boundary organisations to better support the communication of long-term climate information.
Sub-WP 4.5 Mental Models: comparison of different mental models of the systems that decision makers use for making decisions and planning.
Work Package 5: Building the Resilience of Agriculture to Climate Change
Based in Senegal, this pilot study will establish a planning and policy framework which bridges the knowledge gap between climate scientists and the agricultural planning processes.
Sub-WP 5.1 Climate change sharing information’s platform for future decisions/choices of agriculture in WCA Decisions makers/stakeholders: will assess which traits for crops breeding and practices are suitable for sustainable intensification and which options for adaptive strategies should authorities invest in.
Sub-WP 5.2: Fertility Management in Agro-Ecosystems to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change and Variability: to understand nutrient dynamics in agrosystems under climate change scenarios,
Sub-WP 5.3: Pre-breeding for effective use of plant genetic resources toward adaptation to climate changes: aims to identify pearl millet genotypes with improved tolerance to drought and heat, and test these varieties in controlled conditions to simulate the impacts of climate change.
Work Package 6: Future Floods in an urban context
With urban flooding across Africa projected to become more severe through a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors there is a pressing need to include detailed information on the projected impacts of climate change at the city scale. We will focus primarily on Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Sub-WP 6.1: Building a flooding knowledge base: will build a comprehensive knowledge base of flood information and hydrological data, socio-economic impacts, and geo-spatial information in and around Ouagadougou.
Sub-WP 6.2: Hydrological Modelling and Flood Predictions: will develop localized future climate scenarios and use hydrological models to understand the impacts of HIW projections on flooding.
Sub-WP 6.3 Socio Economic Impact of Flood predictions: we will assess both the direct ‘economic’ and the indirect ‘societal’ impacts and determining the change in risk associated with flood events compared to the current situation.
Work Package 7: Project Coordination and communication
Responsible for cross-project relations and interactions with other projects under the FCFA programme and wider community.
Sub-WP 7.1: Science Coordination and Management: A key outcome of AMMA-2050 will be enhanced capacity within each partnering institute through data, skills and knowledge sharing, workshops, field visits and external advice.
Sub-WP 7.2: Capacity Building, Stakeholder Engagement and communications: A key ambition of AMMA-2050 is enhanced capacity within each partnering institute through data, skills and knowledge sharing, workshops, field visits and external advice. Dissemination and communication will be aided by the stakeholder group
Sub-WP 7.3 Tracking and Evaluating: Owing to the multi-disciplinary and cross-sectoral approach of AMMA-2050, project partners and stakeholders will develop a monitoring and evaluation system to assess progress and ensure it remains fit for purpose.